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Predicting Over/Under Lines

Although a lot of my previous posts have focused on using statistical analysis to find patterns in the way Vegas sets the spread for NBA games, recently I’ve begun to think about using similar techniques to analyze over/under lines as well. My first step in starting to look at ways to analyze over/under lines was to think about how bookies… Read more →

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Do Preseason Predictions Affect a Team’s Success Against the Spread? A Deep Dive

As I determined in two earlier posts (here and here), the amount by which an NBA team either overperforms or underperforms  against their preseason win total predictions has a strong affect on their success against the spread during the season. While this effect is more pronounced earlier in the year, at all points during the season teams that are outpacing… Read more →

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Is Home Court Advantage a Product of Referee Bias?

Many of you have heard the theory (advanced by author Tobias Moskovitz) that home court advantage can really be attributed to the behavior of  referees favoring the home team, rather than players performing better on familiar turf. The theory works as such: Refs are unconsciously habituated by fans booing when they make a call against the home team, and cheering when they make… Read more →

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Do Preseason Predictions Affect a Team’s Wins Against the Spread? pt. 2

In my first post on this topic, I examined whether a team’s performance against preseason predictions affected it’s success against the spread. I found some encouraging results from that analysis (more specifically, that there was a positive correlation between a team’s record vs. their predicted record , and their number of wins against the spread), but it left me with a few… Read more →

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Do Preseason Predictions Affect a Team’s Success Against the Spread?

When someone bets on sports, in many cases they are doing so because they feel their predictions about a certain game are more accurate then the Vegas bookies. They might feel that they know something others don’t, or that Vegas is underestimating or overestimating the impact of a particular event, or even that they have an overwhelming gut feeling. In… Read more →

goodteams

Do Better Teams Fare Better Against the Spread? – 2014-15 Midseason Check In

Although finding correlations and analyzing past data is interesting, it is ultimately a meaningless endeavor unless it can predict future trends. Having found a strong link in the 2009-13 seasons between how many straight-up wins a team achieves and how many wins against the spread (WATS) they accrue, I wanted to check to make sure that this was trend holding… Read more →

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Home/Away x Favorite/Underdog

Since I had previously performed an analysis to determine whether there was a significant difference in the frequency with which home teams and away teams beat the spread, and had also performed an analysis to determine whether there was a significant difference in the frequency with which favorites and underdogs beat the spread, it only seems natural that I would… Read more →